:Product: 0221RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 21/2022Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/0001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/0512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 736 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (24 Feb). III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Feb 071 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 010/010-009/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/10 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 30/10/10