:Product: 0222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 22/0117Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2106Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb). III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 071 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 009/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10