:Product: 0227RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 27/1628Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 27/1235Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar). III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 071 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 018/024-012/016-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/30 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/40/35