:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 27/1628Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
27/1235Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 071
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  018/024-012/016-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/35