:Product: 0228RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Feb 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 28/1929Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2384 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar). III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 070 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 019/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 016/020-012/014-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/35