:Product: 0429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 404 km/s at 29/0025Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
29/1419Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1418Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Apr) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (01 May, 02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 067
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  006/005-007/010-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/40