:Product: 0501RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 May 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (02 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (03 May, 04 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1607Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 May) and quiet levels on day three (04 May). III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 068 Predicted 02 May-04 May 068/070/072 90 Day Mean 01 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 014/015-008/010-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/10