:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (03 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 579 km/s at 02/0901Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/2202Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
02/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2978 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (04 May, 05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 069
Predicted   03 May-05 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        02 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  008/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10