:Product: 0507RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 May 07 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 07/1156Z from Region 2740 (N08E28). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day one (08 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (09 May, 10 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 389 km/s at 07/0147Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1047 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (09 May, 10 May). III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 07 May 079 Predicted 08 May-10 May 079/079/079 90 Day Mean 07 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 25/10/15