:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 May 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1924Z from Region 2741 (N05W44). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (16 May) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 14/2113Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
15/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
15/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (17 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 074
Predicted   16 May-18 May 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  023/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  018/032-015/020-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           35/30/10
Major-severe storm    25/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    75/70/25