:Product: 0527RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 May 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 27/0604Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/0947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0742Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (28 May, 29 May, 30 May). III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 May 068 Predicted 28 May-30 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 27 May 072 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 010/012-011/016-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/30 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 35/35/35 Major-severe storm 30/35/30