:Product: 0528RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 May, 30 May, 31 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 28/2051Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 28/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
28/2018Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and
quiet levels on day three (31 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 May 068
Predicted   29 May-31 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        28 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May  011/016-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    35/30/20