:Product: 0617RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jun 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 16/2231Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun). III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jun 066 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 071 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 010/012-010/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 30/25/25