:Product: 0710RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jul 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 10/0237Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0623Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8131 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (13 Jul). III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Jul 068 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/010-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 45/30/15