:Product: 0711RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jul 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 11/0324Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6595 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul). III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Jul 067 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/15/15