:Product: 0712RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Jul 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 12/0643Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/0724Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6599 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jul). III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jul 067 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 070 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 006/005-006/005-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/30 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/30 Major-severe storm 15/15/35