:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 729 km/s at 06/0308Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25869 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (09 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 068
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  020/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  011/014-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/15