:Product: 0814RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of ~500 km/s at ~14/0225Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4786 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (15 Aug, 17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Aug). III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Aug 067 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-007/008-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/05