:Product: 0820RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 20/1940Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 535 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug). III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Aug 067 Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 20 Aug 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 006/006-005/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 15/05/05