:Product: 0821RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 21/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 706 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug). III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Aug 067 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 007/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05