:Product: 0822RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 22/1204Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/2040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 770 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug). III. Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Aug 066 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/05