:Product: 0823RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 23/0622Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 528 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (24 Aug, 25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Aug). III. Event probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Aug 067 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 005/005-005/005-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/35 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 10/10/35 Major-severe storm 05/05/35