:Product: 0824RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug, 27 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 24/0545Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 482 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (25 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (26 Aug, 27 Aug). III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Aug 066 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/005-007/010-014/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/35/35 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 10/35/20 Major-severe storm 05/35/30