:Product: 0829RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 28/2220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1201Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (31 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (01 Sep). III. Event probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Aug 066 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/008-016/020-025/034 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/35/30 Minor Storm 10/25/40 Major-severe storm 01/10/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 35/65/75