:Product: 0831RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Aug 31 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 31/1250Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8408 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep). III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Aug 066 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 029/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 021/030-013/015-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 40/15/05 Major-severe storm 20/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 75/45/25