:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 505 km/s at 03/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5991 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Oct, 05 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 068
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  007/008-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/15