:Product: 1006RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Oct 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 06/0335Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2040 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (07 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Oct). III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Oct 067 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 005/005-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/25/25