:Product: 1009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 09/0649Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 09/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 459 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 068
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/05