:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 697 km/s at 10/0636Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 09/2135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/0521Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 518 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 068
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/05/25