:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 11/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 740 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Oct,
14 Oct, 15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 068
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  007/008-008/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/25