:Product: 1013RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Oct 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 13/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct). III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 067 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 068 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 008/008-005/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10