:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 13/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 067
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  008/008-005/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10