:Product: 1019RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Oct 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 19/0708Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1751Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct). III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Oct 066 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-009/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/30/20 Minor Storm 01/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/25 Major-severe storm 05/40/25