:Product: 1026RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Oct 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 26/1623Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20986 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct). III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Oct 069 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 067 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 029/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 018/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 015/018-012/015-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/30