:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 360 km/s at 08/2256Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
08/2153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 999 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 070
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  008/010-011/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/50/25