:Product: 1221RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Dec 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 609 km/s at 21/0325Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/0451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec). III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Dec 071 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10