:Product: 1224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2019 Dec 24 2345 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2343Z on 24 Dec 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 365 km/s at 24/0017Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/0947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25-26 Dec) and
at quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Dec 073
Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        24 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  006/005-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25