:Product: 1224RSGA.txt :Issued: 2019 Dec 24 2345 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 357 Issued at 2343Z on 24 Dec 2019 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 24/0017Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0947Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25-26 Dec) and at quiet levels on day three (27 Dec). III. Event probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Dec 073 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 006/005-009/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/25/25