:Product: 0104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 429 km/s at 04/1429Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
04/2048Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2124Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jan 072
Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        04 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10