:Product: 0105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 05/2018Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 05/1743Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 245 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Jan, 08
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (07 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 072
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/10/25