:Product: 0106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 06/0135Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/2245Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jan 071
Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        06 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/25