:Product: 0107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 06/2155Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
07/2037Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan,
09 Jan, 10 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jan 072
Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        07 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  007/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25