:Product: 0111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 519 km/s at 11/0736Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1223 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (13 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jan 074
Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 073/071/070
90 Day Mean        11 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  005/005-008/008-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/30