:Product: 0116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 16/0949Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0828Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jan 072
Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 072/071/070
90 Day Mean        16 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/20/30