:Product: 0121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 21 2240 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2020 COR

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 21/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/1312Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jan 071
Predicted   22 Jan-24 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        21 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/15