:Product: 0130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 30/1810Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 30/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/1624Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 074
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10