:Product: 0131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 31/0933Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0215Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 334 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on
days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jan 074
Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 074/072/070
90 Day Mean        31 Jan 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  011/010-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10