:Product: 0201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 507 km/s at 01/1028Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
01/2009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/2009Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 403 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Feb,
03 Feb, 04 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Feb 073
Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  006/006-006/006-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20