:Product: 0202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/0117Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0437Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/2039Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 072
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10