:Product: 0203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 417 km/s at 03/1547Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/2135Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Feb, 05 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 072
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  005/005-005/005-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/40