:Product: 0208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 07/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 07/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/2220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2023 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Feb 072
Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        08 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  005/005-005/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/40