:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/0004Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/0805Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/0405Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2854 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 071
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  005/005-010/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/40/30