:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2020 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2020

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 456 km/s at 09/2327Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/0536Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3795 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 070
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  010/012-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/10